“MORAL VALUES” VOTE
DRIVEN
BY ONE GENERATION OF VOTERS
Generation Jones holds key to why Dems lost,
and how they can win next time
[Washington, DC] [November 5, 2004] Official Exit Polling from The National Election Pool (NEP) reveals that the 40-49 yr. old age group was most responsible for George W. Bush’s victory over John Kerry in the November 2 U.S. Presidential Election. Both men and women of this age group, known as “Generation Jones”, voted most heavily for Bush, compared to the other four generations of voters.
In their responses to the NEP Exit Polling Questionnaire, Generation Jonesers were the highest percentage (compared to the other four generations of voters) of religious, frequent church-going, Evangelical Christian, religious conservative, and politically conservative voters. In an election in which “moral values” was cited as the most important issue overall by voters, Generation Jonesers’ role in Bush’s re-election is clear, particularly considering the fact that Jonesers are the largest U.S. generation, with more than 1 in 4 voters on November 2.
The role of 40-49 year-old voters was most striking among women. Four of the five generations of women voted for Kerry, by an average of 7%. Only Generation Jones women favored Bush (by a margin of 3%), creating a dramatic 10 point difference between Joneser women and the average of the other generations of women. The NEP Exit Polling results for women are as follows:
| Generation Y (18-24 yr.olds): |
Kerry 59% |
Bush 40% |
| Generation X (25-39 yr olds): |
Kerry 50% |
Bush 48% |
| Generation Jones (40-49 yr.olds): |
Kerry 48% |
Bush 51% |
| Baby Boomers (50-59 yr. olds): |
Kerry 52% |
Bush 47% |
| Mature Generation (60 and older): |
Kerry 51% |
Bush 49% |
These special age cross-tabulations of the NEP Polling highlight the importance of looking separately at actual generations of voters. The standard NEP Polling Report uses the arbitrary age categories of 18-29, 30-44, 45-59, and 60+, splitting Generation Jones in half. By lumping half of these conservative Jonesers in with the liberal Xers, and the other half with the also liberal Boomers, an important story of the 2004 election was hidden.
Cross-tabulations of polling from Rasmussen, Gallup, Zogby, Pew, ICR, and AP-IPSOS, released two weeks before the election, showed that Generation Jones women were the only generation of women who had consistently vacillated between Bush and Kerry in the six months before the election.
Social analyst Jonathan Pontell predicted, in numerous national TV and radio interviews in the last weeks before the election, that Generation Jones women would decide the election, and that their vote would be primarily driven by conservative moral values. Mr. Pontell, who identified and named Generation Jones, says that to be viable in coming elections, Democrats will need the key Generation Jones vote, and that there are multiple ways in which Democrats can turn the “moral values” issue to their advantage with this age group. Mr. Pontell is currently available for media interviews; for analysis of the election results, and their implications for future elections.
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